My plans (cynicism appreciated)

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JAMAWG
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Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:54 am
Location: Cascadia

Re: My plans (cynicism appreciated)

Post by JAMAWG »

I have a background in franchises, hotels and boutique fitness centers. And have worked with or consulted with quite a few tech startups. I have a lot of experience when it comes to starting new businesses.

Here are some buisness basics everyone ignores because they think they are smarter then everyone else. Then 90% are out of buisness in two years.

First off just to get started will take at least twice as long as you think it will even based on all your planning.

Next take the amount you will think it cost to start, then double it. Then triple that amount. For two reasons. Most businesses take 3 to 5 years to turn a profit. And thats the 10% that lasted two years. Of the businesses that make it past 2 years 90% are gone by year 5. Because they ran out of money.

The 2nd reason behind that estimate, most of the advice you get on costs from other startups is pure BS. Almost no one knows their real numbers. Many many expenses are left off the ledger. There are a lot of rich family members who helped out and the "loan" from uncle Bob isn't mentioned. And they lived off their well paid spouse or a trust fund. People don't like to admit that and want to appear "self made".
Those costs are probably the retail for everything. But doesn't include tax and shipping. You will also be hammered by smaller items. Printers, paper, insurance, buisness lunches, toilet paper, travel, on and on and on. That small stuff often ads up to more than the major capital expenses.
In addition to all that they want to sound like they were smart. And make the numbers smaller and the time frame shorter than it was. Makes a good story, but not true. What ever you base your numbers off is a half truth at best. This is true for EVERY industry.

So the reality is, regardless of what you do your chance of success and to still be in buisness in 5 years is at best 3%.

I am in a sorta similar position as you. I have a couple product ideas I would like to get to market one day. But I am spending the next 3 to 5 years doing this at the hobby level. To learn through experience what it really takes to make spirits.
Mossback moonshiner in Cascadia.
SDEngr1
Novice
Posts: 71
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:20 pm

Re: My plans (cynicism appreciated)

Post by SDEngr1 »

JAMAWG wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:22 pm I have a background in franchises, hotels and boutique fitness centers. And have worked with or consulted with quite a few tech startups. I have a lot of experience when it comes to starting new businesses.

Here are some buisness basics everyone ignores because they think they are smarter then everyone else. Then 90% are out of buisness in two years.

First off just to get started will take at least twice as long as you think it will even based on all your planning.

Next take the amount you will think it cost to start, then double it. Then triple that amount. For two reasons. Most businesses take 3 to 5 years to turn a profit. And thats the 10% that lasted two years. Of the businesses that make it past 2 years 90% are gone by year 5. Because they ran out of money.

The 2nd reason behind that estimate, most of the advice you get on costs from other startups is pure BS. Almost no one knows their real numbers. Many many expenses are left off the ledger. There are a lot of rich family members who helped out and the "loan" from uncle Bob isn't mentioned. And they lived off their well paid spouse or a trust fund. People don't like to admit that and want to appear "self made".
Those costs are probably the retail for everything. But doesn't include tax and shipping. You will also be hammered by smaller items. Printers, paper, insurance, buisness lunches, toilet paper, travel, on and on and on. That small stuff often ads up to more than the major capital expenses.
In addition to all that they want to sound like they were smart. And make the numbers smaller and the time frame shorter than it was. Makes a good story, but not true. What ever you base your numbers off is a half truth at best. This is true for EVERY industry.

So the reality is, regardless of what you do your chance of success and to still be in buisness in 5 years is at best 3%.

I am in a sorta similar position as you. I have a couple product ideas I would like to get to market one day. But I am spending the next 3 to 5 years doing this at the hobby level. To learn through experience what it really takes to make spirits.
100% correct!
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