For what it is worth, I have developed some charts to help us understand Matt's VM still operation better.
So, we know that the cooling water ( CW ) passes through the PC first, then to the RC. It is heated up in both condensers by the vapor condensing ( the major factor ) plus some subcooling. The amount of condensed vapor in the RC is the amount L that travels down the column. The amount of condensed vapor by the PC is the measured distillate product D in L/hr. And V = L + D. where V is vapor traveling up the column. And Reflux Ratio RR = L / D . And L = D * RR
How to Construct a Chart of the CW Flow and CW Del T
We can calculate the V at several pot power watts. (later) We will use an initial pot ABV of 32% for this. Then for each value of the watts and D, we can get a RR and L. So, for theses watts and D, we can find the amount being condensed in the RC ( which is L ) and in the PC (which is D). From the amount condensed, the heat given off ( Q, watts ) in each case can be calculated.
Next, the CW flows through and is heated up an amount ( Del T ), the temperature rise in each Pc and RC. The CW energy balance equation for each case is; Q = m * cp * Del T
where m is the CW flow - cp is the water specific heat - Del T is the CW temperature rise
We calculate Del T in each, for PC and RC, add them up and get the total Del T of the CW. We construct a chart and compare this with measurements early in the run to find the effective watts of the run.
So,
By measuring the total temperature rise Del T of the CW through the two units ( PC and RC ) and measuring the amount of CW flow L/min, you can determine from the following charts the effective power (watts) of the run and then find the RR. This should be done early in the run since the initial pot ABV of 32% is used.
The charts to use to find the effective watts for a VM operation are plotted two different ways:
Before, we never really knew what Matt's effective watts and RR were in his runs. Now, we can get a better fix on these numbers. The accuracy of this approach should be close enough, ballpark anyway.

We get the watts from the charts and get the RR from the watts and distillate rate as shown below.
The column diameter was not used to generate the above charts. But we know the operating range of watts for each column diameter, so look in that range for the column being studied. The charts might be good for many different VM columns where the pot charge is about 32% ABV.
Next Run CW Flow
For Matt's 2.5" column, it would be best to start at about 1.1 L/min CW flow and see what the CW Del T is. If the CW Del T is low, then you can reduce the CW Flow to 0.75 L/min and even lower in steps. With 10 C inlet CW temperature, about a 30-40 C CW Del T is a good target.

Use the charts to find the effective watts.
Another crazy observation
If you look throughout the HD posts for VM column builds, you will find that most ( 90%+) of them have the
distillate exit connecting pipe line diameter the same diameter as the column or the vertical reducer from the column. Many use a T with the same pipe diameter on all 3 sides. One side is for the RC, the other for the distillate take-off. That way you get a minimum RR of 1 and higher distillate flow rates.
Matt's exit pipe from the 2.5"column is about 1 inch. So maybe there is no way that he can get a low RR as Bunny has pointed out. According to one of DAD300 posts,
Re: 3" VM still - take-off port dimension/stepdown Questions, the lowest RR Matt can get is about 6.5. But that may be ok for getting a high ABV, but it will reduce the distillate flow rate. A modified take-off build with the same distillate exit pipe diameter as the vertical column or a reducer pipe could help get higher distillate flow rates.
A Table to Look At
Here is one of the tables I generated to construct the charts. It is for a D distillate of 1 L/hr and shows what increased watts will do to the V, L, RR and to the Exit CW temperature and CW Del T early in the run. The basis is a VM still with the pot at a 32% ABV charge.
Finally, ( if you are still reading this ), here is how to get RR:
You can find the VM still Reflux Ratio RR of a 32% pot ABV run by either knowing the watts used or getting the watts ( or KW ) from the above charts, then using the above table or chart below to find a value for V. Then you subtract the observed distillate flow rate D from V to get L ( all values in L/hr). RR is then L/D.
Here is the chart for V in L/hr vs the effective KW for a 32% charge ABV ( or close to this ABV ). Also a line for a 10% wash charge ABV.